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Departments of
1
Urology and
6 Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiochemistry, and
3 Institute for Medical Biometry, University Hospital Charité, Humboldt University, D-10098 Berlin, Germany.
2 Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, M5G 1X5 Canada.
4 Department of Urology, Westfälische Wilhelms-University, D-48129 Münster, Germany.
5 Department of Urology, Martini Hospital, NL-9700 Groningen, The Netherlands.
aAddress correspondence to this author at: Department of Urology, University Hospital Charité, Humboldt University Berlin, Schumannstrasse 20/21, D-10098 Berlin, Germany. Fax 49-30-450-515904; e-mail carsten.stephan{at}charite.de.
| Abstract |
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Methods: We enrolled 1188 men from six different hospitals with PCa or benign prostates between 1996 and 2001. We used a newly developed ANN with input data of tPSA, %fPSA, patient age, prostate volume, and digital rectal examination (DRE) status to calculate the risk for the presence of PCa within different tPSA ranges (24, 4.110, 210, 10.120, and 220 µg/L) at the 90% and 95% specificity or sensitivity cutoffs, depending on the tPSA concentration. ROC analysis and cutoff calculations were used to estimate the diagnostic improvement of the ANN compared with %fPSA alone.
Results: In the low tPSA range (24 µg/L), the ANN detected 72% and 65% of cancers at specificities of 90% or 95%, respectively. At 410 µg/L tPSA, the ANN detected 90% and 95% of cancers with specificities of 62% and 41%, respectively. Use of the ANN with 210 µg/L tPSA enhanced the specificity of %fPSA by 2022%, thus reducing the number of unnecessary biopsies.
Conclusions: Enhanced accuracy of PCa detection over that obtained using %fPSA alone can be achieved with a %fPSA-based ANN that also includes clinical information from DRE and prostate volume measurements.
| Introduction |
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2025% of unnecessary biopsies (5)(6). For tPSA values <4 µg/L, the use of %fPSA has been reported to increase specificity (7)(8)(9), but other studies have not confirmed this finding (10)(11). It has been reported that %fPSA possibly correlates with prostate volume (5)(12)(13)(14)(15), age (12)(13)(16), and other clinical variables (1)(17). Recently, %fPSA has been proposed as a primary decision tool for first-time biopsy in men with a nonsuspicious digital rectal examination (DRE) within the tPSA range 410 µg/L, as well as for lower PSA values (18)(19). Since 1998, different models of logistic regression (20)(21) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) (22) have been introduced to improve the PCa detection rate (23). These models include clinically relevant data and can add substantial information for detecting PCa while avoiding unnecessary biopsies in patients with benign prostates (22)(24)(25)(26)(27)(28)(29)(30).
ANNs can predict the outcome of prostate biopsy in an individual patient better than traditional statistics and are able to handle a greater number of variables with nonlinear relations than logistic regression (31). In a study of 656 men with tPSA in the range 410 µg/L, Finne et al. (22) could avoid approximately one-third of unnecessary biopsies at 95% sensitivity for the detection of PCa. For the lower tPSA range (2.64 µg/L), Babaian et al. (29) used a combination of three different ANNs and could avoid 63.6% of unnecessary biopsies. Recently, we evaluated a %fPSA-based ANN in 859 patients (tPSA range, 220 µg/L) using the variables tPSA, %fPSA, age, prostate volume, and DRE status (30). The aim of the present study was (a) to establish the performance of this ANN in a multicenter study and (b) to demonstrate the improved accuracy of ANNs for detection of PCa compared with tPSA or %fPSA in clinical practice at different cutoffs.
| Materials and Methods |
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All 721 PCa patients (median age, 65 years; range, 4086 years; median prostate volume, 30 cm3; range, 10114 cm3) were diagnosed histopathologically by ultrasound-guided sextant or octant prostate biopsy. Five of the six centers exclusively performed sextant biopsy, whereas in one center (University Hospital Charité, Berlin), the biopsy strategy was changed in September 1999 from sextant biopsies (n = 517) to octant biopsies (n = 342) with inclusion of two more lateral cores (near the apex).
The 467 patients with benign prostates (median age, 65 years; range, 4389 years; median prostate volume, 38 cm3; range, 14114 cm3) were all histopathologically confirmed. The histologic diagnosis on the basis of tissue obtained only by transurethral resection of the prostate or open adenomectomy (n = 32) or transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided sextant or octant biopsy (n = 435) was benign prostatic hyperplasia with or without chronic prostatitis or no histologic abnormality, but no evidence of prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia. Differentiation based on the number of biopsy sessions and biopsy history was not performed.
procedures
PSA determinations.
Serum samples were collected before any prostate manipulation or at least 34 weeks after an earlier manipulation such as prostate biopsy, DRE, prostate massage, TRUS, or cystoscopy. The blood samples were centrifuged within 23 h after venipuncture, and the supernatants (serum) were analyzed on the same day or stored at -20 °C no longer than 48 h until analysis was performed. Various studies showed that this approach of sampling would not have a detrimental effect on fPSA stability (32)(33).
In all six centers, total and free PSA were assayed using the IMMULITE PSA and IMMULITE Free PSA assays (Diagnostic Products). The assays are solid-phase, two-site, sequential chemiluminescent immunometric tests that are automatically performed on the IMMULITE automated analyzer with detection limits of 0.02 and 0.03 µg/L for fPSA and tPSA, respectively. The tests use both polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies specific for PSA or a monoclonal anti-PSA antibody specific only for fPSA. The analytical performance and comparisons with other PSA tests have been described previously (34)(35).
Prostate volume and DRE.
Only well-trained urologists in all participating centers determined prostate volume by TRUS. The COMBISON 330 was used in Berlin and Toronto, and the COMBISON 360 (Kretz Technik) was used in all three Holland centers and in Münster. The prolate ellipse formula [
/6(transverse diameter x anterior-posterior diameter x cephalocaudal diameter)], which is the most widely used in urology (36), was applied as a sufficiently accurate method of prostate volume estimation. Corresponding to data obtained in other studies (37), the intra- and interobserver variations in estimating the prostate volume by TRUS were between 12% and 15% at the University Hospital Charité, as described previously (38), but they were not systematically studied in the other study centers. A DRE finding nonsuspicious for cancer was defined as negative and a finding suspicious for cancer as positive.
statistical analyses
Conventional statistical calculations.
We used the statistical software SPSS 10.0 for Windows and SigmaPlot 2001 for Windows (SPSS). The nonparametric KruskalWallis test of variance, the MannWhitney U-test, logistic regression analysis with forward variable selection, and Spearman rank correlations (rs) were carried out. The diagnostic validity of tPSA, %fPSA, and the ANN was evaluated by ROC curve analysis (39). The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were compared by a nonparametric method using the software GraphROC 2.1 for Windows (40). Significance was defined as P
0.01.
ANN.
The ANN models were constructed with the SPSS-extramodule Neural connection 2.0 (SPSS). The ANN was evaluated, trained, tested, and used to enhance the detection of PCa within the tPSA range 220 µg/L, including subsets of this range. We used a back-propagation network in which the input layer consisted of five variables: tPSA, %fPSA, patient age, prostate volume, and DRE status. The hidden layer used three neurons and the output layer had one neuron representing the output value as the probability of PCa. ANN comparisons including ROC curve analysis were studied with all 1188 patients as well as with subsets of trained and tested patient values within the different PSA ranges. For the whole PSA range, for example, we used data from 1000 patients for training, from which 100 patients were used for validation of the ANN within the training run. The established ANN was then tested using data from the remaining 188 patients.
For all five tPSA ranges, the ANN model was trained initially and then tested. The training and testing sessions were repeated 10 times so that each of the patients was set once in the testing group. This procedure of cross-validation avoids overtraining of the ANN. The sum of correctly identified patients in the 10 runs was the overall number of correctly classified patients. The developed back-propagation ANN is a feed-forward network. The activation function of the three hidden layers and the output layer was the hyperbolic tangent function, which produces output values between -1 and 1.
A Borland Delphi 5 computer program called "ProstataClass" was constructed for an input of the five variables and an outcome of a value between 0 and 1, which constitutes the cancer probability. With this program, it is possible to choose a 90% or 95% specificity cutoff for tPSA input values of 24 µg/L or a 90% or 95% sensitivity cutoff for tPSA input values of 4.110 and 10.120 µg/L. The output value automatically indicates the patients risk depending on the used cutoff.
| Results |
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0.001), but not in the tPSA range 10.120 µg/L (P = 0.23). %fPSA was significantly lower (P
0.001) in PCa patients in all analyzed tPSA ranges.
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In all 721 PCa patients, %fPSA was negatively correlated with tPSA (rs = -0.31; P
0.01). In PCa patients, %fPSA was positively correlated with age (rs = 0.28; P
0.01) and prostate volume (rs = 0.26; P
0.01).
In the 467 patients with benign prostates, %fPSA was positively correlated with age (rs = 0.29; P
0.01) and with prostate volume (rs = 0.33; P
0.01). All other variables, such as age, PSA, DRE, and ANN output, were negatively correlated with %fPSA. Age was not statistically different between patients with PCa or benign prostates across the different tPSA ranges.
Prostate volume was significantly higher in patients with benign prostates for all subgroups. Prostate volume as a factor influencing %fPSA was analyzed. The %fPSA was positively correlated with prostate volume in both PCa patients (rs = 0.26; P <0.01) and those with benign prostates (rs = 0.33; P <0.01) for the entire tPSA range. An abnormal DRE was reported in 551 (46%) of all patients, whereas the remaining 637 (54%) had nonsuspicious DRE results.
For all tPSA ranges (24, 4.110, 10.120, 210, and 220 µg/L), the specificities at 90% and 95% sensitivity and the sensitivities at 90% and 95% specificity for the absolute %fPSA values were calculated (Tables 2
and 3
). These %fPSA values were the so-called "cutoffs" at specific points (e.g., 90% sensitivity or specificity). There was a clearly visible downward trend of %fPSA with higher tPSA values as shown in Tables 2
and 3
.
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ann and roc analyses
For the tPSA ranges 24, 4.110, 10.120, 210, and 220 µg/L, the ANN with the five variables tPSA, %fPSA, age, prostate volume, and DRE status was evaluated separately (Table 4
). Comparison of ANN to logistic regression for all investigated PSA ranges showed no differences. The ANN and the logistic regression method correctly identified 8082% and 7981%, respectively, of all patients. However, this confirms our earlier findings and those of other studies (30)(41). Table 2
summarizes the specificities for tPSA, %fPSA, and ANN for the given sensitivities at 90% and 95% for all investigated tPSA ranges. The number of unnecessary biopsies saved by use of %fPSA or ANN compared with tPSA was calculated as the differences between the specificity cutoffs. Table 3
shows the sensitivities for the given specificities 90% and 95%.
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Use of the ANN demonstrated a significant further enhancement over %fPSA in avoiding unnecessary prostate biopsies, with specificities
2030% higher than those obtained for %fPSA alone. Compared with tPSA alone, the specificities in the different tPSA ranges increased even more. At given sensitivities, the ANN showed
2045% higher specificities.
The ANN generally gave an output value between 0 (low PCa risk) and 1 (high PCa risk). In some cases the value was <0 or >1, which was of no further relevance. On the basis of this ANN, we developed the computer program ProstataClass, in which a physician can easily input the five variables and obtain the ANN output.2
One example is demonstrated in Fig. 1
. In the PSA range 24 µg/L, Fig. 1
depicts a hypothetical patient 1 with a tPSA of 3 µg/L, a %fPSA of 8%, a prostate volume of 20 cm3, and a nonsuspicious DRE, who should undergo a biopsy (Fig. 1A
). A slight increase of the prostate volume gives no indication for a biopsy (Fig. 1B
). If the age were lowered by 10 years, the same variables (prostate volume, 25 cm3) would produce a biopsy recommendation. A 50-year-old hypothetical patient with tPSA of 5 µg/L, %fPSA of 10%, prostate volume of 25 cm3, and a nonsuspicious DRE would show an ANN output of "risk", whereas the same patient with a %fPSA of 12% would have the output "no risk". With this program, it is possible to use the %fPSA-based ANN to decide whether to biopsy.
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On the basis of multiple tests of the performance of the five individually established ANNs within the five various tPSA ranges, we also established ANNs for the PSA ranges 210 and 10.120 µg/L, according to the requirements necessary for urologic practice.
ROC analyses for tPSA, %fPSA, and the ANNs were performed for all tPSA ranges separately using the tPSA values, %fPSA values, and the calculated ANN values to draw the related ROC curves (Fig. 2, AD
). Because there were no differences between the curves calculated with matched data, as we recently recommended to avoid misdistribution of data (39), the curves were calculated with all patients. Additionally, we compared the ROC curves for tPSA, %fPSA, and the ANN obtained in Berlin, as the center with highest number of patients (n = 859), with those obtained at the other centers (n = 329). There were no differences between the AUCs, showing that the overall outcome of the study previously published was not center affected (30).
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For all tPSA ranges, with the exception of 24 µg/L tPSA (P = 0.33), the ROC curves for %fPSA were significantly above those for tPSA (P
0.01). All curves for the different ANNs were significantly above the curve for %fPSA (Fig. 2, AD
). In the tPSA range 24 µg/L, the ANN performed better than %fPSA at the specificity cutoffs of 90% and 95% compared with the 410 µg/L tPSA range (Table 3
). Especially at the clinically important sensitivity cutoffs of 90% or 95% (PSA values >4 µg/L), the use of an ANN provided an advantage over use of %fPSA cutoffs alone.
| Discussion |
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75% of all biopsies will be negative. The discovery of molecular forms of PSA renewed clinical research in enhancing the specificity in this tPSA range and have been more beneficial than other calculated markers, such as PSA density and velocity or age-adjusted cutoffs (1)(17). Within the last few years, it has been clearly demonstrated that the use of %fPSA can significantly improve specificity by
1525% compared with tPSA, with only a minimal loss of sensitivity in detecting PCa (5)(6)(13). This has been shown for the 410 µg/L tPSA range as well as for the lower ranges, 2.64 and 2.54 µg/L tPSA (7)(8). Our data confirm the improved diagnostic accuracy with %fPSA. Recommendations regarding %fPSA cutoffs have been discussed previously (30). ANNs were introduced into urologic decision making in 1994 by Snow et al. (23). Since that time, several studies have been performed using ANNs or conventional algorithms to enhance the detection of PCa (41)(42). In 1998, Carlson et al. (20) introduced a logistic regression model that included %fPSA, tPSA, and patient age. The authors found an 11% increase in specificity over the use of %fPSA alone within the 420 µg/L tPSA range (20). Virtanen et al. (21) used another logistic regression model and an ANN incorporating %fPSA, tPSA, DRE status, and heredity factors at tPSA from 3 to 10 µg/L. The results provided better diagnostic accuracy for PCa detection, with %fPSA and DRE status as the most powerful predictors. Data generated in the present study support DRE status and %fPSA as being the best input variables to detect PCa. A comparison of logistic regression and ANN models by Finne et al. (22) for the tPSA range 410 µg/L included prostate volume but not age. At 95% sensitivity, the specificities of %fPSA, logistic regression, and ANN were 19%, 24%, and 33% respectively.
The main aim of our study, however, was to establish a clinically usable program for the individual calculation of PCa risk. With differently calculated ANNs for the five tPSA ranges, we demonstrated significantly better performance for the ANNs compared with %fPSA in enhancing the specificity and sensitivity. ROC data and the comparative data for sensitivities and specificities, respectively, verify the high diagnostic validity and the advantage of using the ANN values instead of just %fPSA cutoffs for the decision to biopsy. The positive and negative predictive values were also significantly better for the ANNs compared with %fPSA or tPSA alone (data not shown). However, it should be pointed out that the ROC analysis data and predictive values calculated from our referred population do not generalize to populations with other prevalences.
We recommend a first-time biopsy in the low tPSA range (24 µg/L) at a specificity of 95% to avoid general biopsies. In this low PSA range, the ANN considerably outperforms %fPSA and further enhances the sensitivity from 10% (%fPSA) to 65% (Table 3
).
Regarding the high number of unnecessary biopsies, especially in the tPSA range 4.110 µg/L, we want to avoid a general biopsy within this tPSA range and recommend an ANN-based first-time biopsy based on the 90% or 95% sensitivity cutoffs. At these sensitivities, the specificity increased from 34% to 62% and from 28% to 72%, respectively.
For high tPSA values (10.120 µg/L), we recommend a general biopsy but would not rebiopsy if the ANN value indicates a cancer risk <5% (95% sensitivity). This strategy minimizes the risk of missing cancers and saves repeat biopsies in
30% of all patients. Taken together, for all calculated tPSA ranges, the ANNs for 210 µg/L PSA and 10.120 µg/L PSA demonstrated significantly better performance than tPSA and %fPSA alone.
We are now routinely using the two ANNs for 210 and 10.120 µg/L tPSA. However, it must be emphasized that these data are valid only if the IMMULITE PSA and free PSA assays are used within this ANN because these were the assays used for the training and testing. Several studies have demonstrated large differences between PSA assays (35)(43); therefore, the output data may change with other assays.
The most recent data on an ANN at the 2.54 µg/L tPSA range from Babaian et al. (29) demonstrated a remarkable enhancement of specificity at a 92% sensitivity cutoff, from 11% (%fPSA) to 62% (ANN). This ANN was established on a combination of three different ANNs using %fPSA, tPSA, age, and two other serum values as input variables, but not DRE or prostate volume (29). Our data in the low tPSA range (24 µg/L) are analogous to these promising results. At 90% specificity, the ANN achieved 72% sensitivity, whereas tPSA (7%) and %fPSA (28%) had significantly lower results. The advantages of our ANN approach include its applicability for the whole tPSA range and the possibility of easy clinical use. The cutoffs designated for the different PSA ranges must be confirmed in further clinical use. A first-time biopsy based on %fPSA at 410 µg/L tPSA was recently proposed (18). Our trained ANN may help avoid more unnecessary first-time prostate biopsies than the use of %fPSA alone. While this article was under review, one similar study was published (44). The authors applied an ANN for the PSA range 2.510 µg/L with similar cutoffs for the low PSA range (95% specificity) and the 410 µg/L PSA range (95% sensitivity). Using PSA, %fPSA, prostate volume, and the additional volume-related ANN-input values, they achieved areas under the ROC curves for the ANN of 0.913 and 0.876 for the PSA ranges 2.54 and 410 µg/L, respectively. These results confirm the usefulness of PSA, %fPSA, and prostate volume-based ANNs for early detection of PCa.
In preliminary studies, other molecular forms of PSA and human glandular kallikrein 2 and other kallikreins have shown promise in improving the differentiation between PCa and noncancer patients (45)(46)(47)(48)(49). Therefore, it is likely that in the near future these new molecular forms of PSA and other kallikreins (especially human glandular kallikrein 2) may add substantial information in extended ANNs including these markers and %fPSA.
As the ANN is used in clinical practice, more data will be generated that can be used to constantly update and improve the training of the algorithm. Undoubtedly, ANN technology can help in the diagnostic process for urologists, and available clinical and immunoassay data can be used to better assess the patients risk of PCa and whether a biopsy is indicated.
In summary, we developed a diagnostic algorithm based on both immunoassay (Immulite PSA and IMMULITE free PSA) data and clinical data of age, prostate volume, and DRE status to enhance the performance of %fPSA to further reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies within the tPSA range 210 µg/L and to reduce the number of repeat biopsies at 10.120 µg/L tPSA. This ANN, which is based on data from referred populations, has to be validated prospectively in screening and other populations. In the future, ANNs could be used and hopefully expanded with new and promising input data to decrease the number of unnecessary biopsies in detecting PCa.
| Acknowledgments |
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| Footnotes |
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2 Copies of the program may be obtained from Dr. Stephan at carsten.stephan{at}charite.de. ![]()
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1-antichymotrypsin is the major form of prostate-specific antigen in serum of patients with prostatic cancer: assay of the complex improves clinical sensitivity for cancer. Cancer Res 1991;51:222-226.The following articles in journals at HighWire Press have cited this article:
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S. F. Shariat, P. I. Karakiewicz, N. Suardi, and M. W. Kattan Comparison of Nomograms With Other Methods for Predicting Outcomes in Prostate Cancer: A Critical Analysis of the Literature Clin. Cancer Res., July 15, 2008; 14(14): 4400 - 4407. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. A. Brown, C. Stephan, R. L. Ward, M. Law, M. Hunter, A. R. Bauskin, J. Amin, K. Jung, E. P. Diamandis, G. M. Hampton, et al. Measurement of Serum Levels of Macrophage Inhibitory Cytokine 1 Combined with Prostate-Specific Antigen Improves Prostate Cancer Diagnosis Clin. Cancer Res., January 1, 2006; 12(1): 89 - 96. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Ollert, S. Weissenbacher, J. Rakoski, and J. Ring Allergen-Specific IgE Measured by a Continuous Random-Access Immunoanalyzer: Interassay Comparison and Agreement with Skin Testing Clin. Chem., July 1, 2005; 51(7): 1241 - 1249. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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Y. Matsui, N. Utsunomiya, K. Ichioka, N. Ueda, K. Yoshimura, A. Terai, and Y. Arai The Use of Artificial Neural Network Analysis to Improve the Predictive Accuracy of Prostate Biopsy in the Japanese Population Jpn. J. Clin. Oncol., October 1, 2004; 34(10): 602 - 607. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Michael, C. Stephan, D. Schnorr, S. A. Loening, and K. Jung Serum Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor Is Not Elevated in Patients with Prostate Cancer Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., February 1, 2004; 13(2): 328 - 329. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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